Nordic Banks - 4Q Review

Nordic Banks - 4Q Review - Updated CET1 targets fuel dividend story

Conclusion
Changes post results:
SWED:   Neutral - TP up SEK 10 to SEK 200
SEB:      Neutral - TP down SEK 2 to SEK 98
Handelsbanken: Neutral - TP up SEK 11 to SEK 391
Nordea:  BUY - TP up SEK 15 to SEK 120


Our analysis
• Adjusted for stabilization fees, FX effects and other one-offs 4Q was actually decent.
• All Swedish banks, except Swedbank, announced updated capital targets.
• We find the Swedish banks priced in the high end vs. historical data but fair given dividend payout ratios/ yield. Nordea remains our top-pick among the Swedish banks backed by (i) increased dividend, (ii) with better-than-peers corporate lending growth and (iii) AuM growth

FULL REPORT 

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